Speaker
Description
We consider the possibility of socioeconomic collapse of the population caused by epidemics spreading. Using a simple model of negative feedback we study the dynamics of epidemic spreading in a group of agents with its mutual influence on some formal resource (economical, financial, etc). A coupling mechanism between spreading- and resource-subsystem is supposed to be governed by over-barrier transitions (Arrhenius-like law) that is possible when economic resource associated with average income per agent formally represents the market temperature and obeys the Boltzmann-Gibbs statistics [1]. We show that depending on the rate of epidemics spreading and on the availability of formal resource, the system can come back to normal life, can overcome the stress, or move to another stable but more "poor" state [2,3]. Otherwise, in the case of limited recourse and non-zero activation energy, the epidemic intensified by the increasing resource deficit can ultimately drive the system to collapse. While collapsing, the system can pass through a number of quasi-stable states, its dynamics being resembling the so-called devil’s staircase. We also briefly discuss several mitigation strategies involving financial and social regulations and illustrate the ambiguous effect of quarantine measures.
[1] A. Dragulescu, V.M. Yakovenko, Eur. Phys. J. B 17, 723 (2000)
[2] I.S. Gandzha, O.V. Kliushnichenko, S.P. Lukyanets, Eur. Phys. J. B 94, 90 (2021)
[3] I.S. Gandzha, O.V. Kliushnichenko, S.P. Lukyanets, Chaos, Solitons & Fractals 148, 111046 (2021)
