18-21 September 2019
Kraków
Europe/Warsaw timezone

Social influence with recurrent mobility and multiple options

Not scheduled
15m
Kraków

Kraków

Poster Session 8

Speaker

Dr. Attila Szilva (Uppsala University)

Description

In this presentation, we discuss the possible generalizations of the social influence with recurrent mobility (SIRM) model [Phys. Rev. Lett. 112, 158701 (2014)]. Although the SIRM model worked approximately satisfying when U.S. election was modeled, it has its limits: it has been developed only for two-party systems and can lead to unphysical behavior when one of the parties has extreme vote share close to 0 or 1. We propose here generalizations to the SIRM model by its extension for multiparty systems that are mathematically well-posed in case of extreme vote shares, too, by handling the noise term in a different way. In addition, we show that our method opens alternative applications for the study of elections by using an alternative calibration procedure and makes it possible to analyze the influence of the “free will” (creating a new party) and other local effects for different commuting network topologies.

Summary

In this presentation, we discuss the possible generalizations of the social influence with recurrent mobility (SIRM) model [Phys. Rev. Lett. 112, 158701 (2014)]. Although the SIRM model worked approximately satisfying when U.S. election was modeled, it has its limits: it has been developed only for two-party systems and can lead to unphysical behavior when one of the parties has extreme vote share close to 0 or 1. We propose here generalizations to the SIRM model by its extension for multiparty systems that are mathematically well-posed in case of extreme vote shares, too, by handling the noise term in a different way. In addition, we show that our method opens alternative applications for the study of elections by using an alternative calibration procedure and makes it possible to analyze the influence of the “free will” (creating a new party) and other local effects for different commuting network topologies.

Primary author

Dr. Attila Szilva (Uppsala University)

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